For the first time in many years, Christmas 2025 arrived in Nigeria without the familiar anxiety of scarcity and sharp price hikes. Unlike previous festive seasons; when fuel queues lengthened, cooking gas disappeared from retail outlets, and households were pushed under economic duress; this year stood out for relative calm and predictability in commodity availability, especially in the energy sector.
A Clear Departure from the Past
Historically, Christmas in Nigeria has been synonymous with pressure on essentials. Petrol and diesel shortages often triggered transport cost spikes, which cascaded into higher food prices. Cooking gas scarcity further strained households, forcing many to revert to unsafe alternatives. The festive cheer was frequently overshadowed by survival economics.
In 2025, that pattern was notably absent. Fuel supply remained steady, cooking gas was available, and panic buying was minimal. While food items such as rice, poultry, and condiments experienced the usual seasonal uptick; as demand traditionally rises during celebrations; the increases were moderate and predictable, not crisis-driven.
Market Voices from Southwest Nigeria
Visits to major markets across Southwest Nigeria; Ibadan, Abeokuta, Akure, Lagos suburbs, and Osogbo revealed a consistent narrative from traders and buyers alike. Market women and wholesalers described this Christmas as “stable,” “fair,” and “different from previous years.”
Many attributed the calmer market to improved regulation and sanity in the oil sector under the Tinubu-led administration. With fewer disruptions in fuel supply, transportation costs remained largely controlled. This stability filtered down the supply chain, preventing the kind of speculative price surges seen in previous years.
As one trader put it, “When fuel is stable, everything breathes.” It is an old adage with renewed relevance.
Food Prices: From Surge to Relief
Perhaps the most striking development was the reversal of last year’s extreme food inflation. Commodities that surged sharply in 2024; staples such as rice, maize, beans, and cooking oil; plummeted in 2025 to their lowest relative levels in recent times, restoring a measure of affordability for the average household.
This decline did not happen by accident. Improved energy regulation reduced production and logistics costs. Better coordination in imports, local production incentives, and reduced market panic helped prices settle closer to real supply-and-demand fundamentals.
What This Stability Means
Restored Consumer Confidence: Households planned Christmas spending without fear of sudden shocks.
Economic Predictability: Traders priced goods with less speculation, improving trust in the market.
Social Relief: Reduced pressure on low-income earners translated into better nutrition and safer energy choices during the festive season.
Policy Proof: It demonstrated that deliberate governance; especially in the oil and energy sector; can tame inflationary pressures beyond fuel alone.
Why This Must Be Sustained
Stability is more powerful when it becomes consistent. To sustain these gains:
Maintain Firm Energy Regulation: Fuel and gas stability remain the backbone of price control across sectors.
Strengthen Local Food Production: Reducing dependence on imports will cushion future shocks.
Improve Storage and Logistics: Better infrastructure prevents artificial scarcity.
Policy Consistency: Markets respond positively when policies are predictable and transparently enforced.
As Scripture reminds us, “Better is the end of a thing than the beginning thereof” (Ecclesiastes 7:8). The success of Christmas 2025 should not be a one-off celebration but the foundation of a new normal.
Conclusion
Christmas 2025 will be remembered not for scarcity, but for sanity. It offered a glimpse of what is possible when energy regulation is effective and market confidence is restored. The challenge ahead is simple yet profound: to turn this seasonal stability into a sustained national culture of affordability, predictability, and shared prosperity.
